EWS_Conflict & Displacement

Conflict remains the single greatest driver of food insecurity worldwide. In 2024, 65 percent of people facing acute food insecurity lived in fragile or conflict‑affected settings. Over the past decade, the number of armed conflicts has increased by more than 50 percent, with armed violence now driving hunger in 14 of the 16 global hunger hotspots where conditions are expected to worsen in the coming months. Recent and protracted conflicts are pushing food insecurity to catastrophic levels in countries such as Sudan, Gaza, Haiti, Mali and South Sudan.

EWS_Conflict & Displacement responds to this challenge by strengthening WFP’s early warning and anticipatory action in conflict‑affected, food‑insecure contexts. The initiative is a multi‑model forecasting protocol that integrates high‑quality conflict and displacement models to provide more reliable, forward‑looking insights. By assessing and combining multiple analytical tools into an ensemble approach, it supports country offices with better targeting, earlier action, more efficient logistics, lower costs and greater humanitarian impact in high‑risk settings.

Ultimately, EWS_Conflict & Displacement helps decision‑makers prepare for conflict‑driven food security escalations before they reach critical levels. The tool has the potential to reduce food pipeline breaks, enable earlier resource mobilization and deliver significant cost savings through improved logistics planning. For example, cutting reliance on airlifts by just 10 percent during a crisis could save WFP over USD 1 million in a single country.